This panel is taking place just 12 days before the first of two major November deadlines involving China’s critical minerals export controls. On November 10, China’s suspension of its broader controls covering additional rare earth materials, processing equipment, technology and other strategically important products is scheduled to expire. A second U.S.-specific suspension involving gallium, germanium, antimony, graphite and other dual-use materials is scheduled to expire on November 27.

The question before us is not simply whether China will continue shipping these materials. It is what either decision would mean for the economies of both countries, both immediately and over the longer term.

• Extending the reprieve would protect American manufacturing from immediate disruption but it also could also reduce the commercial urgency behind competing American projects.
• Terminating the reprieve would likely produce higher prices, delivery uncertainty and industrial disruption in the United States. At the same time, it could accelerate the investment, purchasing commitments and industrial development required to reduce China’s long-term influence.

We would all like to hear that a secure American rare earth supply chain has already been created. At this time, however, it has not. Understanding how China’s decisions could affect the present, while examining how the United States should prepare for the future, is at the heart of this panel.